ভোট ডাকাতির অংক

আসেন কিছু অংক করি। আমি অংকে খুবই খারাপ কিন্তু যোগ, বিয়োগ, গুন, ভাগ এইগুলা করতে পারি। আর এখন যে হিসাবটা করবো সেটা কোনও হাওয়ায় পাওয়া কন্সপিরেসি থিওরী বা “এমন কিন্তু হইতে পারে, আমার চাচার শালা বলছে” টাইপ সূত্রের উপর ভিত্তি করে না। নির্বাচনে কোন কেন্দ্রে কি ডিপ্লয়মেন্ট হবে পুলিশ হেড কোয়ার্টারের সেই ডকুমেন্ট দেখেই আমি হিসাব করতেছি। আর সাথে ব্যবহার করবো নির্বাচন কমিশনের গেজেট।
আমার অংকের জন্য আমি আমার হোমটাউন সিলেট-১ আসনটি নিচ্ছি, আপনারা চাইলে আপনাদের নিজেদের আসন ধরে হিসাব করবেন।
নির্বাচন কমিশনের অফিসিয়াল গেজেট অনুযায়ী সিলেট-১ আসনে ভোটকেন্দ্র আছে ২১৫ টি। আবার, পুলিশ হেড কোয়ার্টারের সিকিউরিটি প্ল্যান অনুযায়ী মেট্রোপলিটন এলাকার প্রতি ভোটকেন্দ্রে অস্ত্রসহ পুলিশ থাকবে জন; লাঠিসহ আনসার থাকবে ১২ জন; আর লাঠিসহ চৌকিদার/দফাদার থাকবে ১ জন — মোট ১৬ জন। “গুরুত্বপূর্ণ” কেন্দ্রে অস্ত্রসহ পুলিশ থাকবে জন, মোট থাকবে ১৭ জন। মেট্রোপলিটন এলাকার বাইরে এই সংখ্যা কমে যাবে: অস্ত্রসহ পুলিশ থাকবে জন, সাথে লাঠিসহ আনসার, চৌকিদার ১৩ জন, মোট ১৪ জন।
এর মানে হইলো এই যে ৩০ তারিখ সকালে যদি সিলেট-১ আসনের ভোটাররা ২০০-৫০০ হয়ে একেবারে সকাল বেলা ভোটকেন্দ্রের বাইরে লাইনে দাঁড়িয়ে যান, তাইলে পুলিশ দিয়ে ব্যালট বাক্স ভরার স্বপ্ন যারা দেখতেছেন, তাদের সেই স্বপ্ন দুঃস্বপ্নে পরিণত হবে। ৪ জন পুলিশ দিয়ে ৫০০ জন ভোটারকে “সিস্টেম” করা যায় না। এইটা সবচেয়ে ভালো জানেন মিড্-লেভেল পুলিশ অফিসাররা।
এখন দেখি সিলেট-১ আসনে লীগের পোলাপান দিয়ে ভোটকেন্দ্রে দখল করে ব্যালট বাক্স ভরার যদি কোন স্বপ্ন থাকে তাইলে সেটার কি হিসাব। প্রতিটা ভোটকেন্দ্র দখল করতে (বা “গেট লক”) করতে মিনিমাম মানুষ লাগে ৫০ জন (এই হিসাবটা আমি পাইছি আওয়ামী লীগেরই এক নেতার কাছে)। সিলেট ১ আসনের ১০০% ভোটকেন্দ্র দখল করতে তাইলে লাগবে ২১৫ x ৫০ = ১০,৭৫০ জন আর ৫০% ভোটকেন্দ্র দখল করতে লাগবে ১০৭ x ৫০ = ৫,৩৫০ জন। গত সিটি কর্পোরেশন ইলেকশনে মৌলভীবাজার থেকে লোক এনেও কিন্তু এই ম্যানপাওয়ার ডিপ্লয় করা যায় নাই। এইবারতো আরো অসম্ভব। যদি কেন্দ্র খালি থাকে শুধুমাত্র তখনই প্রতি কেন্দ্রে ২৩ জন লোক নিয়ে করা আওয়ামী লীগের “সেন্টার কমিটি” ব্যালট বাক্স ভরার সুযোগ পাবে।
এর মানে হইলো এই যে ৩০ তারিখ সকালে যদি সিলেট ১ আসনের ভোটাররা ২০০-৫০০ হয়ে একেবারে সকাল বেলা ভোটকেন্দ্রের বাইরে লাইনে দাঁড়িয়ে যান, তাইলে কিন্তু পুরা গেইম অন!
এই যে হিসাব এইটা সবচেয়ে ভালো জানে ঐক্যফ্রন্টের নেতারা। এই জন্যই তারা পাখির মতো একটা কথাই বলে যাইতেছে: ৩০ তারিখ সকাল, সকাল ভোট দিতে যান এবং ভোটকেন্দ্র পাহারা দেন।
আওয়ামী লীগ এখন অনেক গুজব ছড়াইতেছে মানুষকে সম্পূর্ণরূপে ডিমোরালাইজড করে দেয়ার জন্য। বিপরীতে ঐক্যফ্রন্টের নেতারাগুলারে দেখেন, মাইর খেয়ে রক্ত বাইর হইতেছে তাও কিন্তু নির্বাচন থেকে সরতেছে না। তাদের হিসাবটা খুব সোজা: ৩০ তারিখ সকালে যদি বাংলাদেশের ভোটাররা ২০০-৫০০ হয়ে একেবারে সকাল বেলা ভোটকেন্দ্রের বাইরে লাইনে দাঁড়িয়ে যান, তাইলে সব খেলা শেষ।

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